Quantitative Note · Heightonomics™ — A Wholly Original Discipline, Five Years in Development

The duration risk you forgot to model: centimeters.

Now in its fifth year of forward production, the Heightonomics framework has been re-fitted following Mr. Warsh's confirmation. With the new Chair at 6′1″ — the tallest since Volcker — the implied path of the 10-year sits materially above the consensus dot plot through 2030. The dot plot, in our considered view, is wrong by approximately one inch.

Editorial · B. Holloway (5′8″), A. Harkness (6′2″) Source · FRED DGS10 Heights · In-person measurement Sample · n = 6 R² · withheld at counsel's request Funded by · 14 subscribers & whoever buys the coffee

Figure 1 — 10-Year Treasury yield, indexed against Federal Reserve Chair height. 1979–2030E.

Chairs are rendered to true relative scale (Volcker, 6′7″; Yellen, 5′3″) and stand at the midpoints of their tenures. Volcker, anchored to the rate peak per signal-weighted convention, is the exception; his cigar smoke is rendered to scale. Yield series: FRED DGS10. Mr. Warsh, marked to model pending in-person measurement, appears on the right.

Realised 10Y yield Warsh-era central path ±1σ forecast band

"We've adjusted for stature. The 10-year settles between 4.17 % and 7.55 % through 2030, with a central estimate of 5.86 % — roughly an inch above where Powell left it. I think people are going to be surprised." — Brent Holloway, Senior Managing Director · Heightonomics™

The Thesis

Heightonomics rests on a single empirical observation: the conditional mean of the 10-year Treasury yield is well-described by one explanatory variable — the height of the sitting Chair. Volcker (6′7″) presided over an average realised yield of 10.4 %. Yellen (5′3″) presided over 2.4 %. Greenspan (6′0″) and Bernanke (5′8″) sit on the line where the model would place them. The relationship is monotonic across the full sample.

The framework has been stress-tested against alternative specifications — age at appointment, prior employer, doctoral institution, party affiliation. None retains explanatory power once height is introduced. Height absorbs the signal.

In our view, Heightonomics is the most underappreciated framework in modern fixed income.

Editorial note · Mr. Harkness ran the regression at 2:14 a.m. on a Sunday and emailed the results to the entire firm and, inexplicably, to his sister. The sister has since subscribed. He has commenced extending the framework to G7 central bank governors. The Bank of England working draft (titled "Stature and Sterling") is in committee review.

The Sample

Chair	Term	Height	Avg 10Y
Volcker	1979–87	6′7″	10.4%
Greenspan	1987–06	6′0″	5.9%
Bernanke	2006–14	5′8″	3.0%
Yellen	2014–18	5′3″	2.4%
Powell	2018–26	6′0″	2.9%
Warsh	2026–30E	6′1″	5.86%E

Methodology. Pool the realised 10Y yields under Greenspan's full term and Powell's post-reappointment window (12 May 2022 onward). Compute unconditional moments: μ ≈ 5.78 %, σ ≈ 1.66 %. Apply the Warsh height premium (73″ ÷ 72″ ≈ 1.0139). Central path settles at 5.86 %; ±1σ band spans 4.17 % to 7.55 %, as plotted. The forecast assumes height-stationarity over the projection horizon.

Mr. Harkness maintains he can re-derive σ in his head. The desk has asked him to stop offering.

The Implication

What this means for portfolios.

Under the Warsh forecast, duration-heavy portfolios face material drawdown risk through 2030. The 10-year does not return to 2 %. Tail probability of a brief 7 % print: approximately 17 %.

We recommend an underweight in long duration. We recommend an overweight in pension liability hedges. We recommend, on a related note, reviewing our Q3 framework on convexity.

The implied 30-year fixed mortgage rate under the Warsh path: approximately 8.4 %. The desk has updated its housing model.

The desk views the post-Powell rate regime as a structural reset. 1995–2007 was the high-water mark of fixed-income strategy. We are positioned accordingly.

We are not aware of another framework that captures it as cleanly.

Compliance addendum · M. Chen · This note has not been reviewed. The undersigned wishes it formally recorded that she requested it be reviewed. Six (6) times.

The Heightonomics™ framework runs on caffeine and goodwill.

Mr. Holloway has not eaten a hot lunch since the second Bernanke term. Mr. Harkness's regression software license expires in March. Ms. Chen has been paid in deferred equity since 2023; she has reviewed the cap table and would like a word.

If this note saved you from buying duration at the top — or merely entertained you for the cost of zero (0) basis points — the desk would accept a coffee.

$ 3 · ONE COFFEE — Mr. Harkness will email you the regression. Unsolicited. $ 8 · COFFEE & A SANDWICH — Mr. Holloway eats. The desk takes a photograph. $ 25 · LUNCH FOR THE DESK — Your name on the masthead. Subscriber count rises to 15. $ 100 · ONE (1) BILLABLE HOUR — Mr. Harkness will measure you. In person. Weather permitting.

Buy the desk a coffee ko-fi.com/heightonomics From $3 · One-time · No subscription

© Heightonomics™ 2026 · Set in Playfair Display & Inter (selected by Mr. Holloway personally) Not investment advice. Coefficients available on request; the request will be denied. Donors' requests will be denied with a thank-you note.

Funding addendum · M. Chen · The undersigned has reviewed the above appeal and wishes it formally recorded that the in-person measurement service offered at the £100 level raises liability concerns the firm is not insured against, the proposed photograph of Mr. Holloway eating raises others, and Ko-fi proceeds are, per IRS guidance the undersigned has had to look up herself, taxable income. The undersigned has been overruled. The undersigned is updating her résumé.